As President-Elect Donald Trump prepares for a second term, he holds unprecedented sway in both chambers of Congress and with the Supreme Court. With the Republican Party now firmly under his influence, the new administration has the opportunity to enact sweeping changes, especially during the crucial first 100 days in office. In particular, three areas stand out: increasing U.S. energy production, negotiating an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and countering Iran’s nuclear ambitions. These priorities could reshape U.S. policy in ways that will have global implications, especially in the energy and geopolitical arenas.
Priority 1: Energy Independence Through Increased Oil and Gas Production
Trump’s primary objective for his energy policy is clear: make American energy the cheapest in the industrialized world by ramping up oil and gas production. This goal has been outlined in his “Trump Agenda47,” which advocates for removing federal restrictions on drilling and approving key permits for liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. Trump has pledged to undo Biden-era restrictions on federal drilling permits and other environmental policies that have limited domestic energy production.
This agenda aims to position the U.S. as the leading producer of affordable fossil fuels, supporting not only American energy independence but also a price suppression strategy that could drive down oil and gas costs globally. The likely result would be downward pressure on energy prices, which would affect both domestic and international energy markets.
Priority 2: Negotiating a Swift End to the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has destabilized European security and disrupted global energy supplies. Trump has repeatedly stated he could bring an end to the conflict within 24 hours of taking office, using a two-pronged strategy focused on U.S. aid.
- Leverage with Russia: Trump would present Russian President Vladimir Putin with an ultimatum: either negotiate a peace deal with Ukraine or face a substantial increase in U.S. military support for Ukraine. This would include the provision of sophisticated, long-range weaponry, which would extend Kyiv’s strike capability to Russian territories engaged in the conflict.
- Conditional Aid for Ukraine: Simultaneously, Trump would require Ukraine’s President Zelenskiy to negotiate with Russia. Trump’s proposed peace framework would allow Russia to retain disputed areas, including Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk, with additional demilitarized zones to secure both countries’ borders.
Trump sees this approach as pushing NATO countries to assume greater financial responsibility for their own defense. He has long advocated for European NATO members to increase their defense spending to at least 2.5% of GDP, a standard only a handful of countries, such as Greece and the United Kingdom, currently meet. If a peace deal were struck, it could also motivate European nations, including Germany, to resume energy trade with Russia, as many European economies are strained by inflation, energy costs, and competition from China.
However, this approach may create political fractures within the European Union, as countries might reassess their support for Ukraine based on domestic economic priorities. A divided EU could lessen the resolve to penalize Russia economically, potentially shifting the balance of power in Eastern Europe.
Priority 3: Addressing Iran’s Nuclear Threat in Partnership with Israel
In a return to his hardline approach toward Iran, Trump’s administration will likely support Israeli action against Iran’s nuclear program. Trump’s previous administration withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018, asserting that the deal allowed Iran to secretly fund nuclear developments. Trump has suggested that he would support Israel in launching a preemptive strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities, a stance that has drawn criticism but aligns with his aim to counter Iranian influence in the Middle East.
A major strike against Iran’s nuclear capabilities would have significant geopolitical ripple effects, particularly in U.S. relationships with Arab states like Saudi Arabia. Trump’s administration had previously fostered normalization deals between Israel and several Arab nations, beginning in 2020 with the United Arab Emirates. Reestablishing these agreements, coupled with firm support for Israeli security, would serve as a signal to Middle Eastern allies about U.S. commitment to the region’s stability.
Furthermore, this policy could check China’s increasing influence in the Middle East. Since 2018, China has been working to replace the U.S. as a superpower in the oil-rich region, but a reinvigorated U.S.-Middle East alliance would complicate these efforts. By reasserting U.S. influence over key regional players like Saudi Arabia, Trump could restore the cooperative dynamic that kept oil prices within a stable range during his previous term, known as the “Trump Oil Price Range.”
A High-Stakes First 100 Days for Global Impact
President-Elect Trump’s priorities in energy, foreign policy, and defense are poised to make a major impact in his second term. By focusing on energy independence, he aims to make American oil and gas globally competitive, with potential implications for global energy prices. His proposed settlement for the Russia-Ukraine conflict could shift NATO dynamics and alter Europe’s long-term economic relationships, particularly in the energy sector. And his willingness to support Israel against Iran’s nuclear program highlights his intent to secure U.S. interests in the Middle East, challenging China’s influence in the region.
This ambitious agenda underscores Trump’s desire to reshape U.S. influence on the global stage. With control over both Congress and a supportive Supreme Court, his administration has the potential to drive transformative policies that could redefine America’s role in energy and geopolitics for years to come.Supreme Court, his administration has the potential to drive transformative policies that could redefine America’s role in energy and geopolitics for years to come.
