The digital financial assets (DFA) market in Russia could grow 15 times, reaching 5 trillion rubles by 2028 under an optimistic scenario, according to estimates by Arthur Consulting.
What Are DFAs?
Digital financial assets (DFAs) are created and circulated using blockchain technology. They are issued by operators of information systems (OIS) registered with the Bank of Russia. Currently, there are 11 platforms authorized to operate in this space, including Sber, Alfa-Bank, Atomize, AToken, Masterchain, and the National Settlement Depository. This limited number of platforms, compared to traditional financial exchanges, indicates the early stage of market development and reflects the high costs and uncertain profitability for new players.
Current Market Performance
From January to October 2024, 316 DFA issuances were conducted, with a total volume exceeding 330 billion rubles. The largest share of issuances involved monetary claims (79%), followed by rights to equity securities (18%) and government DFAs (3%).
For banks, DFAs remain largely experimental. While their interest in these instruments is growing, they remain cautious investors. Among retail investors, the average investment size is modest, typically up to a few hundred thousand rubles. However, regulatory restrictions currently limit the accessibility of DFAs to a narrow group of retail investors. Lowering investment thresholds is seen as a potential solution, but this would require improvements in infrastructure and regulatory mechanisms.
Future Scenarios for Growth
Experts outline three potential growth scenarios for the DFA market:
- Organic Growth Scenario
The market grows gradually through private company efforts and technological innovation. Companies developing DFA issuance and trading platforms enhance their systems to improve efficiency and functionality. Without significant legislative changes, however, growth would likely be capped at 1 trillion rubles by 2028. - Moderate Growth Scenario
Faster development is achieved through improved legal and tax regulations, alongside advancements in technology and product offerings. Government support—such as simplifying DFA issuance and trading processes, investing in public awareness, and integrating DFA education into curricula—would be crucial. These changes could address existing barriers and reduce risks for investors, enabling growth to 3 trillion rubles by 2028. - Explosive Growth Scenario
The market expands rapidly due to the combined impact of government support, technological investments, and infrastructure development. This would drive increased investor interest, foster new business models, and integrate DFAs into everyday financial practices. Under this scenario, the market could reach 5 trillion rubles by 2028.
Key Drivers and Opportunities
The widespread adoption of the digital ruble could play a pivotal role in the market’s growth. It would enhance liquidity and convenience for users, while incentivizing businesses and individuals to actively use DFAs in transactions.
According to Sevil Baer, project director at Arthur Consulting, achieving significant market expansion requires addressing legislative barriers and improving investor confidence through education and robust infrastructure development.
