Indonesia
Macro Health Radar
Key Debt & Fiscal Metrics
Credit Commentary
INDONESIA (US455780DU78)
Credit Rating: S&P BBB Stable, Moody's Baa2 Stable, Fitch BBB Stable
Credit Momentum: Stable - ASEAN Anchor. Indonesia maintains solid investment-grade BBB/Baa2 reflecting: (1) large economy ($1.4T GDP, 280M population = 4th most populous country); (2) commodity wealth (coal, palm oil, nickel, tin); (3) democratic stability (successful presidential transitions); (4) strategic location (ASEAN largest economy); (5) improving infrastructure (Jokowi legacy). Recent presidential transition smooth: Prabowo elected October 2024 succeeding Jokowi, continuity expected on economic policies. Key strengths: low debt ~40% GDP, young demographics (median age 30 vs. China 39), consumption-driven growth (60% GDP).
Nickel Superpower: Indonesia controls 25%+ global nickel reserves, critical for EV battery production. Government pursuing downstream integration: banned nickel ore exports (2020), forcing processing domestically, attracting Chinese/Korean battery investments ($20B+ committed), targeting EV battery manufacturing hub. Policy controversial (WTO ruled export ban illegal, negotiated exemptions) but economically successful - nickel processing industry creating tens of thousands jobs, export value increased despite volume decline.
Overall Assessment: Indonesia represents largest ASEAN credit with BBB/Baa2 ratings reflecting: (1) scale advantages (280M population, large domestic market); (2) commodity wealth positioning for energy transition (nickel, copper); (3) democratic stability unique in region; (4) young demographics supporting consumption growth; (5) infrastructure improvements under Jokowi (2014-2024). Suitable for ASEAN anchor allocations. Key positives include: low debt ~40% GDP providing fiscal space, commodity advantages (coal exports $50B+ annually despite energy transition, palm oil $40B+, nickel $30B+), demographic dividend (working-age population growing). Challenges: corruption persistent (despite improvements), infrastructure gaps remain (outside Java), education quality limiting productivity, decentralization creating policy inconsistencies. Recommended OVERWEIGHT for ASEAN exposure - best large-scale democratic EM credit in Asia. Preferred versus: Philippines (BBB/Baa2 similar rating, smaller economy), India (BBB-/Baa3 worse fiscal metrics), Thailand (BBB+/Baa1 political instability). Indonesian bonds trade 120-160bps over UST - attractive for BBB category given growth trajectory and commodity advantages. Monitor: (1) Prabowo policy implementation; (2) nickel industry development; (3) fiscal discipline maintenance; (4) infrastructure investment continuation.
Indonesia Sovereign Bonds (71)
| Bond | Coupon | Maturity | Ccy | Price | YTM | Duration | Z-Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INDONESIA 6.4 03/10/2029 | 6.4% | 2029-03-10 | IDR | 100.72 | 6.128% | 2.64 | 143 |
| INDONESIA 3.8 06/23/2050 | 3.8% | 2050-06-23 | USD | 74.61 | 5.841% | 13.57 | 110 |
| INDONESIA 3.55 06/09/2051 | 3.55% | 2051-06-09 | USD | 71.09 | 5.817% | 14.03 | 104 |
| INDONESIA 5.65 11/25/2054 | 5.65% | 2054-11-25 | USD | 99.00 | 5.803% | 13.35 | 108 |
| INDONESIA 5.47 02/21/2056 | 5.475% | 2056-02-21 | USD | 96.63 | 5.792% | 13.79 | 103 |
| INDONESIA 5.65 01/11/2053 | 5.65% | 2053-01-11 | USD | 99.66 | 5.755% | 13.12 | 105 |
| INDONESIA 4.2 10/15/2050 | 4.2% | 2050-10-15 | USD | 80.65 | 5.752% | 13.64 | 100 |
| INDONESIA 4.3 03/31/2052 | 4.3% | 2052-03-31 | USD | 81.56 | 5.745% | 13.90 | 98 |
| INDONESIA 5.45 09/20/2052 | 5.45% | 2052-09-20 | USD | 97.08 | 5.744% | 13.30 | 102 |
| INDONESIA 3.7 10/30/2049 | 3.7% | 2049-10-30 | USD | 74.70 | 5.738% | 13.47 | 100 |
| INDONESIA 3.5 02/14/2050 | 3.5% | 2050-02-14 | USD | 72.05 | 5.727% | 13.92 | 96 |
| INDONESIA 4.35 01/11/2048 | 4.35% | 2048-01-11 | USD | 83.95 | 5.719% | 12.62 | 105 |
| INDONESIA 5.15 09/10/2054 | 5.15% | 2054-09-10 | USD | 93.55 | 5.685% | 13.91 | 92 |
| INDONESIA 5.95 01/08/2046 | 5.95% | 2046-01-08 | USD | 104.08 | 5.684% | 11.21 | 114 |
| INDONESIA 6.75 01/15/2044 | 6.75% | 2044-01-15 | USD | 113.32 | 5.636% | 10.31 | 117 |
| INDONESIA 5.35 02/11/2049 | 5.35% | 2049-02-11 | USD | 97.52 | 5.619% | 12.49 | 96 |
| INDONESIA 5.3 08/14/2035 | 5.3% | 2035-08-14 | AUD | 97.76 | 5.610% | 7.19 | 79 |
| INDONESIA 5.1 02/10/2054 | 5.1% | 2054-02-10 | USD | 93.98 | 5.602% | 13.84 | 84 |
| INDONESIA 4.75 07/18/2047 | 4.75% | 2047-07-18 | USD | 90.67 | 5.575% | 12.34 | 93 |
| INDONESIA 5.25 01/08/2047 | 5.25% | 2047-01-08 | USD | 96.94 | 5.574% | 11.89 | 97 |
| INDONESIA 5.12 01/15/2045 | 5.125% | 2045-01-15 | USD | 96.33 | 5.513% | 11.34 | 95 |
| INDONESIA 4.62 04/15/2043 | 4.625% | 2043-04-15 | USD | 91.31 | 5.487% | 11.08 | 95 |
| INDONESIA 5.25 01/17/2042 | 5.25% | 2042-01-17 | USD | 98.63 | 5.452% | 10.18 | 100 |
| INDONESIA 7.75 01/17/2038 | 7.75% | 2038-01-17 | USD | 121.52 | 5.338% | 7.77 | 112 |
| INDONESIA 6.62 02/17/2037 | 6.625% | 2037-02-17 | USD | 111.42 | 5.298% | 7.60 | 110 |
| INDONESIA 8.5 10/12/2035 | 8.5% | 2035-10-12 | USD | 124.91 | 5.215% | 6.67 | 111 |
| INDONESIA 4.9 04/16/2036 | 4.9% | 2036-04-16 | USD | 98.16 | 5.204% | 7.61 | 101 |
| INDONESIA 4.95 02/21/2036 | 4.95% | 2036-02-21 | USD | 98.69 | 5.185% | 7.42 | 100 |
| INDONESIA 5.2 07/23/2035 | 5.2% | 2035-07-23 | USD | 100.81 | 5.154% | 7.03 | 101 |
| INDONESIA 5 12/01/2035 | 5% | 2035-12-01 | USD | 99.39 | 5.145% | 7.23 | 98 |
| INDONESIA 5.25 11/25/2034 | 5.25% | 2034-11-25 | USD | 101.18 | 5.143% | 6.57 | 105 |
| INDONESIA 5.2 07/02/2034 | 5.2% | 2034-07-02 | USD | 100.90 | 5.128% | 6.37 | 105 |
| INDONESIA 4.97 03/04/2046 | 4.97% | 2046-03-04 | EUR | 98.10 | 5.120% | 12.31 | 184 |
| INDONESIA 5.6 01/15/2035 | 5.6% | 2035-01-15 | USD | 103.84 | 5.113% | 6.64 | 101 |
| INDONESIA 5.6 11/15/2033 | 5.6% | 2033-11-15 | USD | 103.96 | 5.027% | 5.88 | 100 |
| INDONESIA 4.75 09/10/2034 | 4.75% | 2034-09-10 | USD | 98.59 | 5.018% | 6.65 | 91 |
| INDONESIA 4.7 02/10/2034 | 4.7% | 2034-02-10 | USD | 98.68 | 4.964% | 6.26 | 90 |
| INDONESIA 4.85 01/11/2033 | 4.85% | 2033-01-11 | USD | 100.03 | 4.902% | 5.49 | 91 |
| INDONESIA 4.7 06/06/2032 | 4.7% | 2032-06-06 | USD | 99.94 | 4.767% | 5.07 | 81 |
| INDONESIA 4.65 09/20/2032 | 4.65% | 2032-09-20 | USD | 99.69 | 4.760% | 5.36 | 78 |
| INDONESIA 4.46 03/04/2038 | 4.46% | 2038-03-04 | EUR | 97.38 | 4.749% | 8.97 | 171 |
| INDONESIA 3.55 03/31/2032 | 3.55% | 2032-03-31 | USD | 94.28 | 4.716% | 5.15 | 75 |
| INDONESIA 4.25 01/15/2037 | 4.251% | 2037-01-15 | EUR | 96.28 | 4.707% | 8.31 | 172 |
| INDONESIA 2.55 06/09/2031 | 2.55% | 2031-06-09 | USD | 90.72 | 4.646% | 4.58 | 73 |
| INDONESIA 4.5 12/01/2030 | 4.5% | 2030-12-01 | USD | 99.64 | 4.640% | 3.97 | 77 |
| INDONESIA 2.15 07/28/2031 | 2.15% | 2031-07-28 | USD | 88.77 | 4.619% | 4.76 | 69 |
| INDONESIA 1.85 03/12/2031 | 1.85% | 2031-03-12 | USD | 88.20 | 4.614% | 4.48 | 70 |
| INDONESIA 2.8 06/23/2030 | 2.8% | 2030-06-23 | USD | 93.38 | 4.604% | 3.76 | 75 |
| INDONESIA 4.55 07/23/2030 | 4.55% | 2030-07-23 | USD | 100.02 | 4.596% | 3.72 | 74 |
| INDONESIA 4.35 02/21/2031 | 4.35% | 2031-02-21 | USD | 99.16 | 4.594% | 4.19 | 71 |
| INDONESIA 4.3 04/16/2031 | 4.3% | 2031-04-16 | USD | 98.98 | 4.580% | 4.35 | 68 |
| INDONESIA 5 05/25/2030 | 5% | 2030-05-25 | USD | 101.84 | 4.554% | 3.54 | 71 |
| INDONESIA 3.85 10/15/2030 | 3.85% | 2030-10-15 | USD | 97.38 | 4.552% | 3.99 | 68 |
| INDONESIA 2.85 02/14/2030 | 2.85% | 2030-02-14 | USD | 94.28 | 4.543% | 3.47 | 71 |
| INDONESIA 5.25 01/15/2030 | 5.25% | 2030-01-15 | USD | 102.63 | 4.527% | 3.26 | 70 |
| INDONESIA 5.1 07/02/2029 | 5.1% | 2029-07-02 | USD | 102.27 | 4.380% | 2.84 | 58 |
| INDONESIA 4.45 02/20/2029 | 4.45% | 2029-02-20 | USD | 100.33 | 4.368% | 2.57 | 58 |
| INDONESIA 4.1 03/04/2034 | 4.1% | 2034-03-04 | EUR | 98.24 | 4.364% | 6.57 | 154 |
| INDONESIA 1.3 03/23/2034 | 1.3% | 2034-03-23 | EUR | 80.01 | 4.340% | 7.20 | 145 |
| INDONESIA 4.75 02/11/2029 | 4.75% | 2029-02-11 | USD | 101.33 | 4.285% | 2.54 | 50 |
| INDONESIA 4.4 03/10/2029 | 4.4% | 2029-03-10 | USD | 100.43 | 4.284% | 2.63 | 49 |
| INDONESIA 5.4 11/15/2028 | 5.4% | 2028-11-15 | USD | 102.87 | 4.257% | 2.30 | 48 |
| INDONESIA 3.4 09/18/2029 | 3.4% | 2029-09-18 | USD | 97.51 | 4.232% | 3.12 | 42 |
| INDONESIA 3.75 10/16/2033 | 3.75% | 2033-10-16 | EUR | 97.06 | 4.208% | 6.28 | 141 |
| INDONESIA 1.1 03/12/2033 | 1.1% | 2033-03-12 | EUR | 82.20 | 4.121% | 6.38 | 131 |
| INDONESIA 3.88 01/15/2033 | 3.875% | 2033-01-15 | EUR | 98.64 | 4.114% | 5.76 | 137 |
| INDONESIA 3.65 09/10/2032 | 3.65% | 2032-09-10 | EUR | 98.48 | 3.927% | 5.47 | 120 |
| INDONESIA 1.4 10/30/2031 | 1.4% | 2031-10-30 | EUR | 88.43 | 3.759% | 5.12 | 107 |
| INDONESIA 1 07/28/2029 | 1% | 2029-07-28 | EUR | 92.54 | 3.447% | 3.11 | 91 |
| INDONESIA 2.35 06/01/2035 | 2.35% | 2035-06-01 | JPY | 92.60 | 3.413% | 6.89 | 116 |
| INDONESIA 3.75 06/14/2028 | 3.75% | 2028-06-14 | EUR | 101.24 | 3.148% | 1.99 | 65 |
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